This is related to my other recent question, which involved linear flows on the unit sphere. Here, we are going to consider nonlinear flows.
Let $\mathbb S^{d-1}=\{x\in\mathbb R^d\ :\ x^Tx=1\}$ denote the unit sphere. Let moreover $A$ be a real $d\times d$ matrix.
Following this MathOverflow question we consider the unique solution $x(t, x_0)$ to the nonlinear initial value problem $$ \dot{x}=(I-x x^T)Ax, \quad x(0)=x_0\in \mathbb S^{d-1}. $$ For $x\in \mathbb S^{d-1}$, that is $\lvert x \rvert^2=1$, we see that $$\tfrac{d}{dt}(x^T x)=x^TA^Tx-x^TA^Tx\lvert x\rvert^2+x^TAx - \lvert x \rvert^2 x^TAx=0,$$ so $x(t, x_0)$ remains on $\mathbb S^{d-1}$ for all $t>0$.
Now the linked MathOverflow question states, without proof, that if $A$ is negative semi-definite, then
$x(t, x_0)$ converges to a stable equilibrium.
Can you prove an appropriate version of this statement?
Here's some of my thoughts.
I can think of two versions of the statement to prove. But I cannot prove either of them. First of all, it is easy to see that the normalized eigenvectors of $A$ correspond to equilibria; precisely, if $Av=\lambda v$ and $v\in \mathbb S^{d-1}$ then $$ \left.\tfrac{d}{dt} x(t, v)\right|_{t=0}= (I-vv^T)\lambda v=0,$$ which implies that $x(t, v)=v$ for all $t\ge 0$. This leads me to think that the "stable equilibrium" mentioned in the statement above is an eigenvector. The two conjectures follow.
Conjecture 1. For each $x_0\in \mathbb S^{d-1}$ there is an eigenvector $v\in\mathbb S^{d-1}$ of $A$ such that $x(t, x_0)\to v$ as $t\to \infty$.
Conjecture 2. (stronger). Let $\lambda_j$ denote the eigenvalues of $A$ and suppose that $0>\lambda_1>\lambda_j$ for all $j>1$, and that $\lambda_1$ is non-degenerate. Let $v\in \mathbb S^{d-1}$ be a $\lambda_1$-eigenvector of $A$. Then $$ x(t, x_0)\to v,\quad \text{or}\quad x(t, x_0)\to -v$$ as $t\to \infty$, unless $v^Tx_0=0$. (In the latter case the system never leaves the $(d-2)$ dimensional sphere $\{x\in\mathbb R^d\ :\ v^Tx=0,\ \lvert x\rvert^2=1\}$).
First a remark: It seems rather odd to ask for $A$ to be negative definite, since the sphere becomes repelling and the problem is unstable when running forward in time! One has: $$ \frac{d}{dt} (1-x^t x)^2 = - 2 (1-x^tx)^2 (x^t A x).$$ So for $x\neq 0$, $|1-x^tx|$ is decreasing when $A$ is positive definite and the equation is globally stable only in that case.
Suppose $v\in {\Bbb R}^d\setminus\{0\}$ is a fixed point. Then you find $Av=\lambda v$ and $v^t v=1$. Linearizing around the fixed point, $x=v+z$ ($z$ small), yields: $$ \dot{z}= (A-\lambda) z - 2 \lambda v (v^t z)+o(z)= (A-\lambda-2\lambda vv^t) z + o(z).$$ In the $v$-direction you need $\lambda>0$ for global stability as already mentioned. In an orthogonal direction, $v^tz=0$, i.e. tangent to the sphere, we have $\dot{z}=(A-\lambda)z$ which gives stability precisely when $\lambda$ is a largest isolated eigenvalue of $A$.