Bayes' theorem for weather forecast puzzle

563 Views Asked by At

I found the following example of a case where Bayes' theorem could be used, on this French wikipedia page. No solution has been given though.


Contradictory Forecasts

  • According to weather station $A$, the weather will be nice tomorrow.
  • Another station $B$ predicts rainy weather.
  • It is known that A makes errors in $25\%$ of all cases, and B in $30\%$ of all cases.
  • It is known that on average, $60\%$ of all days are rainy and $40\%$ are nice.

Who is right with what probability?


I think I would be able to give one if you see what version of the theorem should be applied, so a small hint would be enough to help me to give an answer. However, feel free to give a complete answer if you like.