In the real axis, there is a bug standing at coordinate $x=1$. At each step, from the position $x=a$, the bug can jump to either $x=a+2$ or $x=\frac{a}{2}$. How many positions in total are there (including the initial position) that the bug can jump to by at most $n$ steps?
Isn't the answer trivially $2^n+1$? Am I missing something here?
EDIT: For examples, I tested the following:
$n=1$: Trivially, the answer is $2+1=3$.
$n=2$: The possible sequences are $1,3,5$ and $1,3,3/2$ and $1,1/2,7/2$ and $1,1/2,1/4$, which gives us a total of $7$ positions, but this is not equal to $2^2+1$. So, my hypothesis is incorrect.
Does anyone have any other idea in mind to solve this problem? We want to avoid collisions, where two possibilities land on the same position at some point, and we end up double-counting it.
$\newcommand{\BUG}{\operatorname{BUG}}$ This is not a solution to the problem, but I think it answers your question about the "trivial answer".
Let $\BUG(n)$ be the number of positions that the bug can jump to in at most $n$ steps. For example, in zero steps, the bug can only be at the starting position $1$, so $\BUG(0)=1$. In at most one step, the bug can get to $1/2$ or $3$, or it can be at its starting position (zero steps). So, $\BUG(1)=3$.
In general, since there are two options at each step, taking exactly $n$ steps will get the bug to at most $2^n$ different positions. Therefore, the number of possible positions after at most $n$ steps is at most $\sum_{k=0}^n 2^k$. So: $$ \BUG(n) \leq \sum_{k=0}^n 2^k = 2^{n+1}-1. $$ Note that for $n=0$ and $n=1$, this formula actually produces the exact number. I think this is the trivial solution you were looking for. So, we can ask: do we actually have $\BUG(n) = 2^{n+1}-1$?
The answer to this is no, as pointed out in the comments, since we can reach (for example) $5/2$ in two different ways: $1 \rightarrow 1/2 \rightarrow 5/2$ or $1 \rightarrow 3 \rightarrow 5 \rightarrow 5/2$. You can check by hand that: $$ \BUG(3) = 14 < 15 = 2^{3+1}-1. $$ So, the guess $\BUG(n) = 2^{n+1}-1$ is wrong. I don't what the real solution is; this seems like it could be a really tricky problem.