Let $B_t$ be a standard brownian motion and $\mu, \sigma \in \mathbb{R}$ with $\sigma \neq 0$. Now let $X_t = \sigma B_t + \mu t$ be the Bachier model with votality $\sigma$ and drift $\mu$. Further let $a,b > 0$ and define the stopping time $\tau = \text{inf} \{t \geq 0 : X_t = a$ or $X_t = -b\}$.
As part of an exercise I need to prove that:
\begin{equation}
\mathbb{P}(X_\tau=a) = \frac{\text{exp}(-\frac{2\mu}{{\sigma}^2})-1}{\text{exp}(-\frac{2\mu}{{\sigma}^2}(a+b))-1}
\end{equation}
I am not sure how to tackle this problem. We did prove in our lecture that if we define the function $g: \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$ as:
\begin{equation}
g(x) = \frac{\text{exp}(-\frac{2\mu }{{\sigma}^2}x)-\text{exp}(\frac{2\mu }{{\sigma}^2}b)}{\text{exp}(-\frac{2\mu}{{\sigma}^2}a)-\text{exp}(\frac{2\mu }{{\sigma}^2}b)}
\end{equation}
then $g(X_t)$ is a martingale satisfying $g(a) = 1$ and $g(-b) = 0$, but I don't see how this helps. All this tells me is
\begin{equation}
\mathbb{P}(X_\tau=a) = \mathbb{P}(g(X_{\tau})=1)
\end{equation}
Any help or hints would be appreciated.
2026-04-02 22:43:49.1775169829
Calculate Probability of Bachier model hitting upper barrier
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1
As you note, $g(X_t)$ is a martingale; therefore (and more useful) the stopped process $Y_t:=g(X_{t\wedge \tau})$ is a bounded martingale, with $Y_0=g(0)$. Therefore $$ g(0)=E[Y_0] = E[Y_\tau]= g(a)P[X_\tau = a]+g(-b)P[X_\tau=-b]. $$ (This requires the previously garnered knowledge (or the stipulation) that $P[\tau<\infty] = 1$.)