$20$ chess players participate in a tournament where every player plays with each of the others only once. The first $3$ players will get a prize. There are $2$ points awarded to the winner, no points awarded to the losing player and if the game is drawn, each player receives $1$ point. What is the least number of points to guarantee that some player will be among the first three?
My approach is a bit simplistic: All possible pairs are $20C2 = 190$.
All possible points are $2 \times 190 = 380$ because for each pair, the total number of points is $2$ (either $2+0$ or $1+1$).
So the average number per player is $380/20 = 19$.
Therefore if someone gets $20$ points, he will be in the top $3$, right?
I get the same answer at Hagen von Eitzen, but via somewhat different reasoning.
Suppose I arrive late for the tournament, and the other players have already played each other, so that only my $19$ games remain to be played. All I need to do is edge out one of the top three from the current tally. How hard can that be?
Well, the worst-case scenario is if the current top three each beat all the other $16$ players, so that, regardless of how the $6$ points for the three games amongst themselves get distributed, they have a total of $3\cdot2\cdot16+6=102$ points (for an average of $34$ points). Furthermore, the worst thing that can happen to me is if any losses or ties I incur occur against one or more of the current top three.
Now if I score $36$ or more, the current top three's total goes to at most $104$, for an average of less than $36$. That means I've outscored at least one of them, which puts me in the top three. On the other hand, if I only score $35$, their total can go to $105$, which allows for a four-way tie, e.g., if all of us tied each other and beat everyone else. That does not guarantee me a top-three finish.