I have been told that I have come up with a comparison which statistically doesn't make sense. But no one has told me how to correct the comparison. Although I believe it is related to an increased risk when you repeat the same task multiple times. While I have tried, I have been unable to work this out for myself due to my lack of knowledge in this area. I would appreciate any help.
What should this comparison say to be statistically correct?
"Your chance of dying of illness X is 25%. That's like crossing a street three times and being killed by a car the fourth time you cross the road. Your risk of dying from the cure is one in a million. In other words you could cross a street safely once a day for over 2,739 years and you would only be killed once."
What I am trying to work out is for how many days (years) I would have to cross a street once a day, so that the number of street crossings equates a risk of dying of 25% or of 0.0001%.
I hope I have been able to make this clear enough. Thanks for checking this out.
Might be barking up the wrong tree but I think when you repeat a task multiple times this happens:
now out of the 4 days when you cross the road you have one incident happen where you get hit by a car.
$(0.75)^{3}(0.25)^{1}$ which equals $0.10546875 ≈ 11$% of happening
for 1,000,000 times
$(0.999999)^{999999}(0.000001)^{1}$
$3.67879625×10^{−7} ≈ 0.000037$% of happening