My introduction into Axiom of Choice has been kind of confusing (Zorn's lemma) for the start, so it took me some time to realize it's nothing but to say The non-empty product of non-empty sets is non-empty. I still find it quite puzzling that this doesn't follow from the plain ZF axioms, but still ...
Just to understand the nature of infinite Cartesian products better now, I has asked myself the following: Does the Cartesian product get "bigger" the more non-empty sets I take, as it is with finite products ($|\{1,2\}|\leq |\{1,2\}^2| $)? To put it more correctly
Let $\{A_i\}_{i \in I}$ be a family of non-empty sets and $J \subset I$ a subset of the index set $I$. Does my intuition hold and the following is correct?$$\left|\prod_{j\in J} A_j \right| \leq \left|\prod_{i\in I} A_i\right|$$
As I see it, if this was true, Axiom of Choice follows (let $J$ be finite $\Rightarrow$ LHS is not empty), but is the statement equivalent to the Axiom of Choice? If so, how would one prove that?
Yes, they are equivalent. You argue correctly that your formulation implies the Axiom of Choice.
In the other direction, given the Axiom of Choice, you can find a fixed element of $\prod_{j\in I\setminus J} A_j$ and use that to extend each each element of $\prod_{j\in J} A_j$ to be defined for all of $I$ in in injective way. This proves your formulation.