I was wondering about finding expected value of dice throw. I know that in case of single dice throw,the expected value is 3.5 = ((1+2+3+4+5+6)/6). So for purpose of betting the base price could be 3.5 to ensure no profit and no loss scenario. But how can I extend this logic for double dice throw or N dice throw. I though that for case of double dice out of the 36 cases, I could take the maximum value for each pair which would give 6 eleven times, 5 nine times, 4 seven times, 3 five times , 2 three times and 1 once. But this gave expected value to be 4.47, whereas the correct answer in book is 4.25. How can I determine the fair value in this case?
Expectation of Double Dice Throw
49.8k Views Asked by Bumbble Comm https://math.techqa.club/user/bumbble-comm/detail AtThere are 2 best solutions below
On
The number of rolls where $h$ is the highest of $n$ dice is the number of ways for $k$ dice to show less than $h$ and $n-k$ to show $h$ $$ \begin{align} \sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\binom{n}{k}(h-1)^k &=\overbrace{\color{#C00}{(1+(h-1))^n}\vphantom{\binom{n}{n}}}^{\text{sum for $k=0\dots n$}}-\overbrace{\color{#090}{\binom{n}{n}(h-1)^n}}^{k=n}\\ &=\color{#C00}{h^n}-\color{#090}{(h-1)^n}\tag1 \end{align} $$ which makes sense since it is the number of possible rolls showing at most $h$ minus the number of rolls showing at most $h-1$ with $n$ dice.
Assuming $n\gt0$, the total number of possible rolls of $n\times d$-sided dice is the sum of $(1)$ for all $h$ $$ \sum_{h=1}^d\left(h^n-(h-1)^n\right)=d^n\tag2 $$ The expected high die is then $$ \begin{align}\newcommand{\stirtwo}[2]{\left\{#1\atop#2\right\}} \frac1{d^n}\sum_{h=1}^dh\left(h^n-(h-1)^n\right) &=\frac1{d^n}\sum_{h=1}^d\left(h^{n+1}-(h-1)^{n+1}-(h-1)^n\right)\\ &=d-\frac1{d^n}\sum_{h=1}^d(h-1)^n\\ &=d-\frac1{d^n}\sum_{h=1}^{d-1}h^n\tag{3a}\\ &=d-\frac1{d^n}\sum_{j=0}^{n}\binom{d}{j+1}\stirtwo{n}{j}j!\tag{3b} \end{align} $$ where $\stirtwo{n}{j}$ is a Stirling Number of the Second Kind.
The expectation of the sum of two (independent) dice is the sum of expectations of each die, which is 3.5 + 3.5 = 7. Similarly, for N dice throws, the expectation of the sum should be N * 3.5.
If you're taking only the maximum value of the two dice throws, then your answer 4.47 is correct. This has been proven here in multiple ways.
Presumably, the answer given in the book is wrong or the question is different than you've interpreted it to be.