Find the long-term mean number of cars in line at the toll booth.

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Cars arrive at a toll booth according to a Poisson process at the rate of two cars per minute. The time taken by the attendant to collect the toll is exponentially distributed with mean $20$ seconds.

(a) Find the long-term mean number of cars in line at the toll booth.

(b) Find the long-term probability that there are more than three cars at the toll booth.

If the arrival is $2$ cars per minute, then the inter-arrival times between each successive car is $\text{exp}(1/2)$ distributed. So cars arrive with rate $\text{exp}(1/2)$ and they leave the booth with rate $\text{exp}(1/3)$.

Let the statespace be $S=\{0,1,2,...,n\}$ denote the number of cars at the booth at different times. Starting at state $0$, the first car to arrive is the car with time equal to

$$\text{min}\left(\text{exp}(1/2),...n \ \text{terms}...,\text{exp}(1/2)\right)=\text{exp}\left(\sum_{k=1}^n\frac{1}{2}\right)=\text{exp}\left(\frac{n}{2}\right).$$

The rate for the second car can be found summing $n-1$ terms in similar fashion. That is $\text{exp}\left(\frac{n-1}{2}\right)$ and so on for the third etc. At the same time, the cars leave the queue as the attendant is finished, an average each $20$ seconds. So the transition rate diagram is

$$0\xrightarrow{\frac{n}{2}}1\xrightarrow{\frac{n-1}{2}}2\xrightarrow{\frac{n-2}{2}}3...n-2\xrightarrow{1}n-1\xrightarrow{\frac{1}{2}}n.$$

(OBS: there are also arrows going to the left from each state with rate $1/3$, did not know how to latex that.)

This is where it gets tedious. I need to find the generator matrix $Q$ and then find the limiting distribution $\vec{\pi}$ using $\vec{\pi}\ Q=0$. Once I have it, I can simply multiply each entry in the limiting distribution vector with each state and sum all the factors obtained. How do I get there?

EDIT as per EDZ's suggestion using Little's rule. I'd be happy if someone could verify the below!


The problem is an M/M/1 process, which is a birth and death process with constant birth and death rates, that is $\lambda_i=\lambda$ and $\mu_i=\mu.$ Thus, the stationary distribution is given by

$$\pi_k=\pi_0\prod_{i=1}^k\frac{\lambda}{\mu}=\pi_0\left(\frac{\lambda}{\mu}\right)^k$$

and

$$\pi_0=\left(\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\prod_{i=1}^{k}\frac{\lambda}{\mu}\right)^{-1}=1-\frac{\lambda}{\mu},$$

so

$$\pi_k=\left(1-\frac{\lambda}{\mu}\right)\left(\frac{\lambda}{\mu}\right)^k,$$

which is a geometric distribution with parameter $1-\lambda/\mu.$ In our case, $\lambda=2$ and $\mu=3$ since each minute, $3$ cars are given service and $2$ new cars arrive. So our distribution is of the number of cars $N$ in the queue is

$$N\sim\text{Geometric}\left(\frac{1}{3}\right).$$

For (a), the long term mean number of cars in line is the mean of the geometric distribution, which is

$$E[N]=\frac{1-1/3}{1/3}=2.$$

For (b), since we have the distribution, we can compute the desired probability as follows:

$$P(N>3)=1-P(N=0)-P(N=1)-P(N=2)=1-\frac{1}{3}-\frac{2}{9}-\frac{4}{27}\approx0.2963$$