How can we tell if Simpson’s rule is an underestimate or overestimate of the area under a curve?

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Context: high school math

Question: integrating a semicircle $y= \sqrt{1-x^2}$ from $0$ to $1$ using five function values with Simpson’s rule gives me $0.7709$. The exact value is $0.785$.

I understand for the trapezoidal rule we can predict if it under/overestimates the area based on the curve’s concavity.

So I wonder if there's a simple way to predict whether Simpson’s rule over/underestimates a curve like this? (I understand Simpson’s rule holds equality for linear and cubic equations)

Edited to add: I have used the formula for error in the comments below and I’m struggling with finding the maximum absolute value of the fourth derivative since there is a vertical asymptomate at x=1 there, please see below graphs of first, second, third and fourth derivatives of the curve

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