I derive the expectation for a problem and get $$N-\frac{a(1-a^N)}{1-a}$$ where $0<a<1$, and $N>0$.
The physical meaning of this value determines it should be positive. But I intuitively think $\frac{a(1-a^N)}{1-a}$ might exceed $N$ when $a$ is close to $1$.
However, I have enumerated some numerical values of $a$, i.e., $0.99999$, $0.999999$ and find $$\frac{a(1-a^N)}{1-a}<N$$ (where $0<a<1$, and $N>0$) holds true, so I conjecture it is always true, but am not sure how to prove it.
When $N$ is a positive integer, and $0<a<1$, then $$\frac{a(1-a^N)}{1-a}=a+a^2+a^3+\cdots+a^N<1+1+1+\cdots+1=N.$$