I am currently a senior in the IB program at my school and I have to write a full-length paper on mathematical research I have conducted. My idea for my paper was to create a gaussian function (normal bell curve) of Covid-19 cases and try to predict a "worst case scenario" in terms of cases in order for countries to prepare for the worst before the pandemic starts. In order to create my prototype "worst case scenario" bell curve, I would use India's Covid cases as it starts off normal but spikes dramatically near the tip of the bell curve, simulating a worst case scenario. After this bell curve was created, I would test different types of functions (linear, exponential, gamma, polynomial, logarithmic, etc.) and see their comparison to India's bell curve and see which is most accurate, as this could be used on other countries.
My two questions to all of you are: Do you think this is a plausible paper? Do you think this paper is mathematically complex enough in terms of Calculus?
Please lend me your advice and suggestions. Thank you so much.