For any structure $M$ and ultrafilter $U$ on a set $\Omega$, let $M^{\langle U\rangle}=M^\Omega/U$ be the conventional ultrapower on $M$.
Is it the case that $|M^{\langle U\rangle}|=|M^\Omega|=|M|^{|\Omega|}$?
In all cases, it is obvious that $|M^{\langle U\rangle}|\le|M^\Omega|=|M|^{|\Omega|}\le|M|^{|U|}$.
I'm told that in the case that $U$ is non-principal, we have $|M^\Omega|\le|M^{\langle U\rangle}|$ as well, so $|M^{\langle U\rangle}|=|M|^{|\Omega|}$. I have yet to see a proof, but it seems plausible enough.
Less plausible is the idea that $|M^{\langle U\rangle}|=|M|^{|\Omega|}$ when $U$ is a principal ultrafilter. I've tried to prove that this isn't necessarily the case, but I keep getting stuck. Whatever the answer, it seems to relate to the properties of ultrafilters in a nontrivial way and I don't think that I can spend the time to really figure it out, especially since all I actually need is an "is true/is false, see ([Author], 19xx) for proof."
That said, I would very much like to understand the proof one way or the other.
You've been told wrong in the nonprincipal case.
For principal ultrafilters, the equivalence relation we're quotienting by is just that $[f]=[g]$ iff $f(i)=g(i),$ where $i$ is the generator of the ultrafilter, so the cardinality of the ultrapower is the same as the cardinality of $M$. (And in fact, similar reasoning shows that the ultrapower is isomorphic to $M$ in this case.)