I need to merge two states in the Transition Matrix:
For example: I have the matrix below
A B C D E F
A 0.5 0.4 0 0 0.1 0
B 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0
C 0 0.1 0.9 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0
E 0 0.2 0 0.7 0 0.1
F 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5
And I want to join the states D and E:
A B C (D+E) F
A 0.5 0.4 0 ? 0
B 0.5 0.1 0.2 ? 0
C 0 0.1 0.9 ? 0
D+E ? ? ? ? ?
F 0 0 0 ? 0.5
What are the formulas to obtain the row and column (D+E)?
Using the constraint: "the sum over column must be equal to 1" is simple to calculate the elements:
(A,(D+E))=0.2
(B,(D+E))=0.2
(C,(D+E))=0.1
(F,(D+E))=0.5
How can I calculate the elements of row ((D+E),i)?
The question can not be answered in general, i.e. there are no "formulas" to compute it. The reason being is that \begin{align*} A(D+E,i) & = P(i | D \cup E ) \\ & = \frac{P(i | D) P(D) + P(i | E) P(E)}{P(D)+P(E)}\\ & = \frac{P(D)}{P(D)+P(E)} A(D,i) + \frac{P(E)}{P(D)+P(E)} A(E,i) \end{align*} and the right hand side depends essentially on $P(D)$ and $P(E).$
For your example, the question can be answered easily, e.g. using Markov chain graphs, but this is rather a "homework" level.