Leibniz's law of the identity of indiscernibles can be stated in monadic second order logic: $$\forall x\forall y (x=y \leftarrow \forall P (Px \leftrightarrow Py))$$ This law is true for standard semantics. My first question is:
Is this law also true for Henkin semantics with comprehension axioms for first-order formulas?
Here I still assume equality to be part of the language, and the comprehension axioms to be $\forall P_1\ldots\forall P_m\forall x_1\ldots\forall x_n\exists P\forall x(Px\leftrightarrow\varphi(x,P_1,\ldots,P_m,x_1,\ldots,x_n))$ for each first-order formula $\varphi(x,P_1,\ldots,P_m,x_1,\ldots,x_n)$ with free variable $x$, free predicates $P_1,\ldots,P_m$ and free variables $x_1,\ldots,x_n$. A first-order formula is a formula that doesn't use quantification over predicates (or other higher order variables). Because the sentence $\forall x_1 \exists P \forall x(Px\leftrightarrow(x=x_1))$ is among these axioms, even a formal proof of Leibniz's law is probably doable.
The indiscernibility of identicals is trivially true: $$\forall x\forall y (x=y \rightarrow \forall P (Px \leftrightarrow Py))$$
This allows us to define an identity relation $E$ without explicit reference to equality: $$\forall x\forall y (Exy \leftrightarrow \forall P (Px \leftrightarrow Py))$$ If we now remove equality from the language, this relation $E$ will remain the identity in case of standard semantics, but will be reduced to an equivalence relation for Henkin semantics. For simplicity, let us also remove constants and functions from the language. Here's my next question:
Is the equivalence relation $E$ compatible with the rest of the language, i.e. $\forall x\forall y (Exy \rightarrow(\varphi(x,x) \rightarrow \varphi(x,y))$ for all formulas $\varphi(x,y)$ with free variables $x$ and $y$ (i.e. $\varphi$ can use all symbols from the language, and also quantify over monadic predicates)?
Here, the first order comprehension axioms shouldn't be allowed to use the symbol $E$, because the definition of $E$ uses quantification over monadic predicates.
And my last question:
Will $E$ partition any model (of a set of axioms) into equivalence classes without any discernible internal structure with respect to the relations available in the language and the monadic predicates available from the Henkin structure?
Let's try to prove that it is true. The idea is that $\forall x_1 \exists P \forall x(Px\leftrightarrow(x=x_1))$ should entail the conclusion $\forall x\forall y (x=y \leftarrow \forall P (Px \leftrightarrow Py))$. Here is the sketch for the formal derivation:
\begin{eqnarray} \cup_\varphi\{\forall x_1\exists P\forall x(Px\leftrightarrow\varphi(x,x_1)) \}& \vdash & \forall x_1 \exists P \forall x(Px\leftrightarrow(x=x_1)) \\ \forall x_1 \exists P \forall x(Px\leftrightarrow(x=x_1)) & \vdash & \forall y \exists Q \forall z(Qz\leftrightarrow(z=y)) \\ \forall y \exists Q \forall z(Qz\leftrightarrow(z=y)) & \vdash & \forall x\forall y(\forall P(Px\leftrightarrow Py)\rightarrow(x=y\leftrightarrow y=y)) \\ \forall x\forall y(\forall P(Px\leftrightarrow Py)\rightarrow(x=y\leftrightarrow y=y)) & \vdash & \forall x\forall y(\forall P(Px\leftrightarrow Py)\rightarrow x=y) \end{eqnarray}
The next question asked about the situation when equality is removed from the language, in the context of monadic second order logic:
There is the implicit question whether the given axiom scheme models compatibilty, and the explicit question whether $E$ is actually compatible. Ignoring the implicit question, it will be compatible, because the definition of $E$ ensures compatibility with second order monadic predicates, and the comprehension axioms for first-order formulas will imply compatibility with the first order predicates, similar to how "compatibility with equality" was derived above.
The last question seems to be just a more hand waving version of the previous question:
The answer is yes, as far as this is just a rewording of the previous question. However, in a certain sense, the intention of the construction was to get rid of superfluous structure encoded by equality. This has not been achieved, because the second order monadic predicates can still encode the same amount of superfluous structure as could be encoded by equality. Basically, the whole system is still equivalent to first order logic with equality.
The correct way to get rid of the superfluous structure would have been a weaker version of the axiom of extensionality. (Instead of $\forall x\forall y[\forall z(x\in z \leftrightarrow y\in z)\rightarrow x=y]$ it would be $\forall x\forall y[(\forall z(x\in z \leftrightarrow y\in z)\land\forall z(z\in x \leftrightarrow z\in y))\rightarrow x=y]$. The axiom of extensionality obviously also gets rid of the superfluous structure, but also has other consequences.) This is different from the second order identity of indiscernibles, exactly because it doesn't refers to quantification over second order predicates.