Hello Everyone i have attempted this question as a homework problem and i have a solution and wondering if anyone can confirm if this is correct. The question is:
A monkey repeatedly types in any of the 26 letters of the English alphabet independently with equal chance. Let T be the number of letters typed in when the word “DAD” first appears. Find the generating function and the expected value of T.
Here is what i have done E($S^T$) = E($S^T$| first letter not D)x$(25/26)$ +
E($S^T$| first letter D, 2nd letter not A)x$(1/26)$x$(25/26)$ +
E($S^T$| first letter D, 2nd letter A but 3rd letter not D)x$(1/26)$x$(1/26)$x$(25/26)$ +
E($S^T$| first 3 letters are DAD)x$(1/26^3)$
= E$(S^{1+T})$x$(25/26)$ +
E$(S^{2+T})$x$(1/26)$x$(25/26)$ +
E$(S^{3+T})$x$(1/26)$x$(1/26)$x$(25/26)$ +
E($S^3$)x$(1/26^3)$
so
E($S^T$) = $\frac{S^3}{26^3}$ + $\frac{25SE(S^T)}{26}$ + $\frac{25S^2E(S^T)}{26^2}$ + $\frac{25S^3E(S^T)}{26^3}$
Then multiplying by $26^3$
$17576E(S^T)$ = $S^3$ + $16900SE(S^T)$ + $650S^2E(S^T)$ + $25S^3E(S^T)$
Then solving for E($S^T$) = $\frac{S^3}{17576 - 16900S - 650S^2 - 25S^3}$
can anyone tell me if this is the correct answer for the generating function?
I also found the expected value of T to be 18728 does that seem like a reasonable value?
Here's how I would do it. Define three different, but related, generating functions \begin{eqnarray*} \phi_0(s)&=&E(s^T)\\ \phi_1(s)&=&E(s^T\mid \mbox{first letter is D})\\ \phi_2(s)&=&E(s^T\mid \mbox{first two letters are DA}). \end{eqnarray*} Conditioning on whether the next letter is "D", "A", or "other", we get the three equations below.
\begin{eqnarray*} \phi_0(s)&=&{s\over 26}\phi_1(s)+{s\over 26}\phi_0(s)+{24s\over 26}\phi_0(s)\\[8pt] \phi_1(s)&=&{s\over 26}\phi_1(s)+{s\over 26}\phi_2(s)+{24s\over 26}\phi_0(s)\\[8pt] \phi_2(s)&=&{s\over 26}\hphantom{\phi_1(s)}+{s\over 26}\phi_0(s)+{24s\over 26}\phi_0(s)\\ \end{eqnarray*}
Solving this system gives the required $\phi_0(s)=s^3/(17576-17576s +26s^2-25s^3)$.