I am a retired philosopher, familiar with some of the philosophical problems about probability (e.g. Hume's problem of induction) but at a loss in calculating probabilities. I recently came across the following problem - problem for me, that is, not site users.
The number of pupils in a school in the years 2020, 2021 and 2023 was:
2020 - 200
2021 - 220
2023 - 250
On the basis of the data, probably how many were at the school in 2022?
Any help would be appreciated. I realise the answer may vary with the theory of probability used.
Without any additional information, all we can conclude is that
$$n\ge0$$
where $n$ denotes the number of students. You can't have a negative number of people. If you want my philosophical take on it, I would say that $n=0$ because remote learning was started as a response to COVID-19.