Question #2: Finding the probability of a decline higher than 9%

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Expected monthly price change=E(x) = 0.60% Average monthly volatility = 9.40%

I am looking for the probability that gold will decline by more than 9% in the next month.

According to the formula for z score: X - E(X) / σ the equation would be= 9%-0.60% / 9.40%

Which is = .8936 which on the z score table is .3133

Since Z is positive, the probability would be 0.5 - .3133 = 0.1867 meaning that the probability of gold declining by more than 9% would be 18.67% but this is not shown on the multiple select.

A. 15.39% B. 85% C. 10.22% d. 22.36%