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Suppose that we are looking at the amount people spend on groceries (the actual data is something similar), the company I work for wants me to see whether there is a way to predict people's future spending on groceries. Currently, we don't do anything other than exponential trending in excel. If I want to improve this process by using data like CPI, Inflation and also use other trending methods and decide on which method is the best, is there a text book or online resource that I can learn from? I'm a math graduate but haven't really done any regression other than one applied math course so I'm looking for a textbook or two you would recommend that I can learn by myself. Ideally, it is applicative (I know R and SAS and SQL). Also, I believe that the company data is very noisy. Given that we've previously only been using excel, I'm not looking for something PHD level but rather something a masters graduate can learn and work through.