Question: Show that in general, we have s ≈ q × LGD. Where s= credit spread, q= one year risk neutral probability, and LGD is the loss given default.
2026-03-26 17:35:08.1774546508
Showing equation for credit spread
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1 year default probability $= q$
credit spread $= s$
LGD $= l$
t year cumulative default probability $$= 1-e^{-\frac{ts}{l}} = q$$ $1-q = e^{-\frac{ts}{l}}$
Taking natural logarithm on both sides and t = 1, we get
$ln(1-q) = -\frac{s}{l}$
$s = -ln(1-q)\times l$
$s\approx q\times l $= Default probability $\times$ Loss Given Default
Then the question is how do you get the first formula it comes from survival probability.