Uncertainty/Error/Confidence estimation in two-answer polling question

24 Views Asked by At

Let's say I have a two-answer poll, such as:

In which direction do you stir a cup of coffee?

A: Clockwise

B: Counter-clockwise

and the results are 60%:40% A:B.

If only 5 people were polled, the chances that the "real" distribution is 50%:50% are quite high.

However, if one million people were polled, you could be reasonably sure that the distribution is not, in fact, 50%:50%, and there is a significant bias toward clockwise stirrers.

What is the correct way to quantify uncertainty/error/confidence estimation in this situation? How do we quantify how confident to be in a distribution elucidated from a poll question such as this?