What can we derive from an experimental plot of prime gap counts?

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The below chart shows the counts of prime gaps in the number range up to $5\times10^8$.

It is clearly an interesting shape and some key features are:

  • an approximate linear relationship between the log of the gap count and the gap value.
  • an approximate lower bound
  • an approximate upper bound
  • a "thin tail" at the bottom right indicating rare large gaps
  • the exception of 1 count of gap=1 (can be ignored?)

The shape seems to hold for very large number ranges, and sources/charts can be found on the internet fairly easily - eg video.

Question: What can we derive from these features of the experimental evidence?

Note: I know experimental evidence is not proof. However, experimental evidence can hint and point us towards provable insights which we might not have otherwise explored.

In particular, if anyone can explain a link between this shape and the prime number theorem would be useful. The PNT suggests the average prime gap at $x$ is $\log(x)$ but I can't seem connect that with the chart.


I would appreciate replies suitable for an audience not trained to university level mathematics.

(The chart incorrectly uses the phrase "frequency" when it should say count).

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