What is the actual probability?

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So here’s the scenario. In Madden Mobile you have what’s called % counters to either run, long pass, short pass or pa pass. So say I have a 2% chance of countering a run play. It takes my opponent 15 plays to score a td, only using one run play out of the 15 plays and being countered once on a run play. What is the actually % chance of being countered on a run in that scenario? I have a 2% run counter yet it counters him on the only run play he chose?