Assume we know $\forall x(P(x))$ is true in a model of Peano arithmetic (PA). Does this mean we can prove $\forall x(P(x))$ using induction? If not, why not? If $P(x)$ is true for all $x$ then $P(0) \land \forall x(P(x) \rightarrow P(S(x)))$ is a true statement.
What if $\forall x(P(x))$ is false in some other model of PA?
I want to emphasize the "if not, why not" part. What more is needed to prove $\forall x(P(x))$ if satisfying the induction axiom schema is not enough.
I think I figured out my confusion. When we say "$\forall x P(x)$" is provable by induction what we mean is we can prove $P(0) \land \forall x(P(x) \rightarrow P(Sx))$ from the other axioms of PA and we can then use modus ponens and the induction axiom $(P(0) \land \forall x(P(x) \rightarrow P(Sx))) \rightarrow \forall x P(x)$ to deduce $\forall x P(x)$. Assume we can prove $\forall x P(x)$ from the other axioms of PA. This does not mean we can prove $\forall x P(x)$ "using induction". We would still have to prove $P(0) \land \forall x(P(x) \rightarrow P(Sx))$ before we could use modus ponens. Of course, we don't need induction to prove $\forall x P(x)$ if it can be derived from the other axioms.
The only way the induction axiom can be false is when $P(0) \land \forall x(P(x) \rightarrow P(Sx))$ is true and $\forall x P(x)$ is false. The easiest way for this to happen is when a proper subset of a model is closed under successor.
Let $P(x)$ = "x does not encode a proof of 0=1". If PA is consistent then there is a model of PA + $\exists x \neg P(x)$. Such a model is $\omega$ - inconsistent. The standard natural numbers are a proper subset of this model and are closed under successor. Even though $P(0) \land \forall x(P(x) \rightarrow P(Sx))$ is true for the standard natural numbers, $\forall x P(x)$ is false. It would seem a model of PA + $\exists x \neg P(x)$ must fail to satisfy induction. We get around this by talking about "definable" subsets of natural numbers. If PA is consistent then the standard natural numbers can't be definable in the language of PA.
There are sentences of the form you describe that are neither provable nor refutable in first-order PA. If $\varphi$ is such a sentence, it will be true in some model of PA, but unprovable from the axioms of PA. One can arrange for $\phi(0)$ to be a theorem. So the induction step will not be a theorem.