Is it correct to compute variance in Blackjack using Bernoulli distribution? For example:
$p = 41\%$ is the probability of winning
$q = 9\%$ is the probability of tieing
$t = 50\%$ is the probability of losing
so the variance for $118$ hands is $p\cdot(q+t)\cdot118$.
So what is the probability of winning only $30$ hands out of $118$?