Suppose $A$ is a diagonal matrix with diagonal entries $\in (0,1]$
I'm interested in bounding the following quantity in terms of $t$: $$f_A(t)=\operatorname{Tr}\exp(-At)-\operatorname{Tr}(I-A)^t$$
Suppose $\operatorname{Tr}(A^2)>1$ and $f_A(t)$ is a decreasing function of $t$, what is a good bound in this regime?
Example, plotting $f_A(t)$ for diagonal $A$ with diagonal values $1,\frac{1}{2},\frac{1}{3},\ldots,\frac{1}{100}$
Motivation: see previous question solved with a bound which is tight for small values of $\operatorname{Tr}(A^2)$



As in the previous question, we may suppose without losing generality that $A$ is diagonal. Let $\lambda_i$ be the eigenvalues of $A$.
We can show that $\lambda_{min} = \min_i \lambda_i$ controls the asymptotic behavior of the error $f_A(t)$ as $t\to \infty$.
For simplicity, let us suppose $\lambda_i > \lambda_{min}$ except for $i=i_0$ such that $\lambda_{i_0} = \lambda_{min}$. Then for any $i \neq i_0$, we have $e^{-\lambda_i}<e^{-\lambda_{min}}(<1)$. Likewise $(0\leq)1-\lambda_i < 1-\lambda_{min}(<1)$. Furthermore, $e^x\geq 1+x$ implies $1-\lambda_{min}<e^{-\lambda_{min}}$. These observation implies that terms that appears in $f_A(t)$ are negligible relative to $e^{-\lambda_{min}t}$. That means the asymptotic behavior of $f_A(t)$ is controlled by $e^{-\lambda_{min}t}$.
Since the sum is a finite sum, we conclude that $f_A(t) = e^{-\lambda_{min}t} + o(e^{-\lambda_{min}t})$.
Just for completion, if there are $k$ $\lambda_i$'s that attain the minimum, then we have $f_A(t) = ke^{-\lambda_{min}t} + o(e^{-\lambda_{min}t})$ instead. So, the asymptotic nature does not change very much.