INTRODUCTION
I desire to model the profitability and growth of capital in dairy farm. Dairy farms generate revenue by two main activities:
- Reproduction Of cattle (Population Growth).
- Milk Production by the female cows.
Profits generated by both the above activities will be reinvested to enhance the scale of these acts. That is:
reproduction of cattle => population expansion => increased milk => increased induction of new cows => expansion of population expansion........... (& cycle repeats)
CRITERIA
Now we have to model the bovine population's growth. Simple exponential models aren't feasible due to certain assumptions and requirements I have listed below:
- All cattle lives from 0 to 7 years of age.
- All cattle mature at 3 years of age.
- Therefore every cow (Female) gives birth to 1 calf per year for a duration of 4 years i.e from 3 to 7 years of age.
- Every calf has equal chances with respect to either gender i.e. half of them will be male and half female.
- Additional cows will be purchased & inducted in the farm from dairy milk income (produced by existing cows) every year.
- The annually inducted cows will be equal in number to half the cows of preceding year and their age will be 3.
- All cows (new or old) have a constant cost
cequal to twice the annual net incomei(milk earnings) from a single cow. i.e.c=2i. (criterion 7 follows logically from 6.)
Example Of criterion 6 & 7:
If there are 10 cows in starting year i.e. year 0 then 5 additional cows will be inducted in year 1.
ULTIMATE QUESTION
Now starting with x cows at age 3 (in years). How many cows & calves the farm contain after t years?