How do I model the following?
I am issuing $N_0$ new shares of a new company at issue price $P_0$. The raised money is immediately spent on a project. After a discrete time interval $t$ months the project will generate a one-time dividend of 20% of the money raised, i.e. of $N_0 P_0$. During this period, every second month, the shareholders get a share dividend of $d_0$%, say 0.5%. (So for example, someone holding 1000 shares would get 5 shares extra the first payout month, 5.025 shares the next time, etc.) The share dividend can range randomly from 0% to 0.5%. Also at the end of the period, all share dividends stop and a buy-back event occurs as follows: 30% of the money raised for this project (the money raised being $N_0 P_0$) will buy back shares at the current market price.
This process is repeated several times a year, say, the first year one more time, the second your 3 times, the third 5 times etc, topped out at 6 or so. Each project can last from 18 to 72 months. Each time an arbitrary amount of capital is raised at the market price, resulting in the issuance $N_i$ shares. All other parameters remain the same, so when the projects overlap, dividends are paid out to all shareholders, share dividends are issued to all share holders pro rata and buybacks obviously affect the entire share base.
Every 5th or so project fails and does not generate share dividends, dividends or buyback funds.
So the float is fluctuating constantly, new shares are issued in small amounts, and sometimes in larger amounts resulting in more dilution, but also more instant share dividends and more expected future cash dividends and buyout expectations.
For discounting future cash dividends, I would propose a constant rate of 12%.
How to model this? Which language would you use? Is Excel feasible?