How would one go about creating a mathematical model following this spec?

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A motor insurance company that provides policies covering the costs of car repair resulting from road accidents would like you to build a mathematical model for estimating the probability that the total size of all claims from such policies in 2020 exceed some threshold. The model should take into account recent statistical trends, analysing the number of road accidents during recent years, and the past data for sizes of claims. Using data from https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/road-accidents-and-safety-statistics