Where did this 0.5 come from? I understand we are using Z-score but in my calculations I basically omit the 0.5 to get a probability of .9616.
2026-04-28 09:51:28.1777369888
Normal approximation to Binomial probability distribution
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I think this is the "continuity correction". You observe single units occurring, so you are in the middle of a value. Hence add or subtract 0.5 to actually switch to the next block and
make the result more appropriate.