I get that the number of digits in a base $3$ number $x$ is found with $$ \big\lfloor\log_3(x)\big\rfloor + 1 $$
($+1$ for the first digit being a scalar of $3^0$ not $3^1$) That being said, how do you know it's not $$ \Big\lfloor\log_3\Big(\frac{x}{2}\Big)\Big\rfloor + 1 $$
If the first digit of the number is a $2$?
Just from exploration I've found that whenever a base $3$ number starts with $2$, these two expressions are equal. Whenever it starts with one the number of digits is always the first expression (obviously). So the first expression is always a correct approximation of the number of digits. Why is this? I don't get why the first expression is always the same as the second expression when the first digit is a $2$.
The expression $$\lfloor\log_3(x)\rfloor + 1$$ is not just, as you say, a correct approximation of the number of digits. It is, in fact, the exact number of digits of $x$.
You can easily prove this fact by writing a $(n+1)\mathrm{-digit}$ number as $$x=\sum_{i=0}^n 3^i a_i$$ where $a_n\neq 0;$ and showing that, since $$3^n\leq x< 3^{n+1},$$ we have $$n\leq\log_3(x)<n+1$$
So, we now already know that $$\lfloor\log_3(x)\rfloor + 1$$ is the number of digits of $x$ in base $3$. Therefore, we also know that $$\lfloor\log_3\frac x2\rfloor + 1$$ must be the number of digits of $\frac x2$, and $\frac{x}2$ has the same number of digits as $x$ if and only if the first digit of $x$ is equal to $2$.
The final statement I wrote is fairly easy to prove, and generalizes to the fact that $x$ has the same number of digits as $\frac x2$ in base $b$ if and only if the first digit of $x$ is greater than $1$.