Denote $F_2$ the free non-abelian group on two letters $a, b$.
Note that any element in $F_2$ is just a word formed by letters from the set $\{a,b,a^{-1},b^{-1}\}$, and the group structure is given by word concatenation, i.e., $(aba^{-1})(a^2b)=abab$.
I want to prove that:
For any $\{x_g\}_{g\in F_2}\in \mathbb{C}$ with $\sum_{g\in F_2}|x_g|^2=1$, we have $|\sum_{g\in F_2}x_g\overline{x_{ag}}|^2$ or $|\sum_{g\in F_2}x_g\overline{x_{bg}}|^2\leq \frac{1}{2}$.
Here, $ag$ ( or $bg$ ) denote the concatenation of $a, g$ ( or $b, g$ )in $F_2$, and $\overline{x_g}$ is the usual conjugation of complex numbers.
Could anyone help prove this or give a counterexample?
(Added)
Here are some simple observations:
Denote $S=support(x)=\{g\in F_2|x_g\neq 0\}$, and note that we have a disjoint union (or partition) $$F_2=\{e\}\cup S_a\cup S_{a^{-1}}\cup S_b\cup S_{b^{-1}}$$
where $e$ denotes the empty word in $F_2$, $S_a$ denotes the subset of all words (in reduced form) in $F_2$ that start with letter $a$, $S_{a^{-1}}, S_b, S_{b^{-1}}$ are defined similarly.
Then, suppose $aS\cap bS=\emptyset$, then it is clear
$$|\sum_{g\in F_2}x_g\overline{x_{ag}}|^2\leq (\sum_{g\in F_2}|x_g|^2)(\sum_{g\in F_2}|x_{ag}|^2)\leq \sum_{g\in F_2}|x_{ag}|^2= \sum_{g\in aS}|x_g|^2 $$
$$|\sum_{g\in F_2}x_g\overline{x_{bg}}|^2\leq (\sum_{g\in F_2}|x_g|^2)(\sum_{g\in F_2}|x_{bg}|^2)\leq \sum_{g\in F_2}|x_{bg}|^2= \sum_{g\in bS}|x_g|^2 $$
since $aS\cap bS=\emptyset$, $\sum_{g\in aS}|x_g|^2 +\sum_{g\in bS}|x_g|^2\leq \sum_{g\in F_2}|x_g|^2=1$, so the claim holds.
Note that if $S\subset S_a\cup S_b\cup\{e\}$, then $aS\cap bS=\emptyset$ holds by considering the first letter is a word; but in general, $aS\cup bS\neq \emptyset$ can happen, for example, if $S\subset S_{a^{-1}}$, then $aS\cup bS\neq \emptyset$ iff $S$ contains some reduced words of the form $a^{-1}ba^{-1}t, a^{-1}t$. (Using the fact $a(a^{-1}ba^{-1}t)=b(a^{-1}t)$). Similarly, you can find a result when $S\subset S_{b^{-1}}$.
Based on the above simple observations, clearly, this problem involves very complicated stuff on combinatorics and inequality estimate, I get stuck in proving the general case, i.e., $S=support(x)$ is arbitrary set of $F_2$. So I believe if the claim holds in general, then there should be some advanced theory behind it that I do not know, perhaps group cohomology method etc.
Note also that the claim can be thought as a claim on the upper norm bound gap (since it is clear that both are no bigger than 1 by Cauchy-Schwarz inequality), so maybe some known rigidity result might be helpful to this problem, but still, I have no idea how to proceed the argument.
This counterexample seems to work for $\frac{1}{2}$, and beyond:
for the right choices of constants
Here $\ell(g)$ denotes the word length of the element $g$, i.e. the minimal number of letters needed in the alphabet $\{a,a^{-1},b,b^{-1}\}$ to write it down.
First note that there is one element of length $0$, i.e. $1$. There are $4$ elements of length $1$, i.e. $a,a^{-1},b,b^{-1}$. And more generally, there are $4\cdot 3^{n-1}$ elements of length $n$. Indeed, writing them without allowing cancellations from left to right, there are $4$ choices for the first letter, and then only $3$ choices for each additional letter.
With $x$ defined as above, note that $0\leq 3r^2<1$ so $$ \sum_{g\in F_2}|x_g|^2=C^2\sum_{g\in F_2}r^{2\ell(g)}=C^2(1+\sum_{n\geq 1}\sum_{\ell(g)=n}r^{2n})=C^2(1+\sum_{n\geq 1}4\cdot3^{n-1}r^{2n}) $$ $$ =C^2\left(1+\frac{4}{3}\frac{3r^2}{1-3r^2}\right)=C^2\frac{1+r^2}{1-3r^2}. $$ So
as desired.
Now we compute $$\sum_{g\in F_2}x_g\overline{x_{ag}}=C^2\left(r+\sum_{n\geq 1}\sum_{\ell(g)=n}r^{\ell(g)+\ell(ag)}\right). $$ Observe that the elements of length $n$ split into two disjoint sets:
1) $3^{n-1}$ elements starting with $a^{-1}$ and such that $\ell(ag)=n-1$.
2) $3\cdot 3^{n-1}=3^n$ elements starting with $a,b,$ or $b^{-1}$ and such that $\ell(ag)=n+1$.
Hence $$ r+\sum_{n\geq 1}\sum_{\ell(g)=n}r^{\ell(g)+\ell(ag)}=r+\sum_{n\geq 1}3^{n-1}r^{2n-1}+\sum_{n\geq 1}3^{n}r^{2n+1} $$ $$ =r+\left(\frac{1}{3r}+r\right)\sum_{n\geq 1}(3r^2)^n=r+\left(\frac{1}{3r}+r\right)\frac{3r^2}{1-3r^2}=\frac{2r}{1-3r^2}. $$ So $$ \sum_{g\in F_2}x_g\overline{x_{ag}}=C^2 \frac{2r}{1-3r^2}=\frac{2r}{1+r^2} $$ For symmetry reasons, we find the same sum for $\sum_{g\in F_2}x_g\overline{x_{bg}}$. Therefore
Now $$ \lim_{r\rightarrow \frac{1}{\sqrt{3}}}\left(\frac{2r}{1+r^2} \right)^2=\frac{3}{4}. $$ And to be more precise, this rational function is increasing on $(0,1/\sqrt{3})$. So we get a counterexample to your conjecture for $r$ close enough to the left of $\frac{1}{\sqrt{3}}$. And actually, we get a stronger result: for every $\alpha < \frac{3}{4}$ there exists $x$ of norm $1$ which violates the inequalities: