I've been struggling with this inequality for a while. I tried expanding the exponentials into their taylor series, and I tried using convexity but I haven't been able to find a way to show this.
How can I show that for $0 \leq p \leq .5$, $s \in [0,p]$ we have that: $$ pe^{s(1-p)} + (1-p)e^{-sp} \leq e^{s^2 (3/2) p } $$
Thank you!
We show that, if $0\leq p\leq 1$ and $0\leq s\leq p$, then $$p\mathrm{e}^{(1-p)s}+(1-p)\mathrm{e}^{-s}\leq \mathrm{e}^{\tfrac{1}{2}ps^2}\text{.}\tag{1}$$
Let $q=1-p$. From Lagrange's form of the remainder for Taylor's theorem, there exists a $\sigma\in[0,p]$ such that $$\ln(q+p\mathrm{e}^{s})=ps +\tfrac{ps^2}{2} \tfrac{q\mathrm{e}^{\sigma}}{(q+p\mathrm{e}^{\sigma})^2}\text{.}$$
Note that the function $$x\mapsto \frac{qx}{(q+px)^2}$$ is monotone on $$0\leq x \leq \tfrac{q}{p}\text{.}$$ We consider two cases 1. $p\leq \tfrac{1}{3}$ and 2. $p\geq \tfrac{1}{4}$.
In either case we have $$\frac{q\mathrm{e}^{\sigma}}{(q+p\mathrm{e}^{\sigma})^2}\leq 1\text{.}$$ Therefore $$\ln(q+p\mathrm{e}^{s})\leq ps +\tfrac{ps^2}{2}$$ from which (1) is immediate.
Let $s=pt$. Then $$\lim_{p\to 0}\frac{\ln(q+p\mathrm{e}^{pt})- p^2t}{\tfrac{1}{2}p^3t^2}=1\text{,}$$ so this inequality can't be sharpened.
An older version of this answer showed that if $0\leq p\leq 1$ and $0\leq s\leq 1$, then $$p\mathrm{e}^{(1-p)s}+(1-p)\mathrm{e}^{-s}\leq \mathrm{e}^{p(1-p)s^2}\text{.}$$
Let $q=1-p$. From the integral form of the remainder for Taylor's theorem, we have $$\ln(q+p\mathrm{e}^{s})=ps +pqs^2 \int_0^1 \frac{\mathrm{e}^{st}}{(q+p\mathrm{e}^{st})^2} (1-t)\mathrm{d}t\text{.}$$
From the elementary inequality $$1-t\leq \mathrm{e}^{-t}$$ and since $0\leq s \leq 1$ and $t\geq 0$ imply $$\mathrm{e}^{-t}\leq \mathrm{e}^{-st}\text{,}$$ we have $$1-t\leq \mathrm{e}^{-st}\text{.}$$
Then $$\begin{split}\int_0^1 \frac{\mathrm{e}^{st}}{(q+p\mathrm{e}^{st})^2} (1-t)\mathrm{d}t&\leq \int_0^1 \frac{\mathrm{d}t}{(q+p\mathrm{e}^{st})^2}\\ &\leq\int_0^1 \frac{\mathrm{d}t}{(q+p)^2}\\ &=1\text{.} \end{split}$$ Therefore $$\ln(q+p\mathrm{e}^s)\leq ps+pqs^2$$ which is equivalent to $$q\mathrm{e}^{-ps}+p\mathrm{e}^{qs}\leq\mathrm{e}^{pqs^2}\text{.}$$