Statistics, Central limit theorem

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The amount of nicotine in Dytusoon cigarettes have a mean of 0.941 g and a standard deviation of 0.313 g. Find the probability of randomly selecting 40 cigarettes with a total of 36 g of nicotine or more.

When using my TI84 calculator I enter the problem as "normalcdf(36,E99,.941,.313/(squareroot of 40))" but I get 0 as the answer. So I am wondering how I would solve this using my calculator( what part of my formula is wrong or is there a step I am missing).

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My guess is that you aren't calculating the probability associated with the correct distribution, so the answer you are getting is too small, so you are getting an underflow error and thus your calculator reports 0. Let's rehash the steps to solving the problem here


EDIT:

The first entry probably should not be 36. I can't tell you exactly what I think it might be since I don't know how the "normalcdf" function on your calculator works or what its parameters are; there are multiple ways to interpret it.

My guess is that the "normalcdf" function is using the distribution of $\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ to calculate the probabilities.

However, what you want to calculate is the distribution of $\mathcal{N}(40*(0.941),40*(0.313)^2)$ where the first number in parentheses is the mean, and the second is the variance (square of the standard deviation). We can transform the probabilities of the one distribution to another as follows (I believe; I am doing this all in my head and not writing it down so I am probably making mistakes).

What we want to calculate is $\mathbb{P}(Z \ge 36)$ where $Z = \sum_{i=1 }^{40} X_i$, and $Z \sim \mathcal{N}(40*(0.941),40*(0.313)^2)$ but your calculator only lets you calculate the distribution of $\mathcal{N}(0,1)$. So we normalize $Z$ to get a random variable $$Y= \frac{Z-(40*0.941)}{\sqrt{40}*(0.313)}$$ which is distributed as $\mathcal{N}(0,1)$.

Now $$\mathbb{P}(Z \ge 36)=\mathbb{P}\left(Y \ge \frac{36-40*0.941}{\sqrt{40}*0.313}\right)$$


Let $X$ be the amount of nicotine in the $i$th cigarette, $i=1, \dots, 40$.

Assume that the amount of nicotine in each cigarette is independent, i.e. all of the $X_i$ are independent.

Using the Central Limit Theorem, approximate the $X_i$ by normal variables with mean $0.941$ and and variance $0.313$.

Thus what you want to calculate is the probability distribution of $\sum_{i=1}^{40} X_i$, which is the sum of independently distributed normal random variables, and therefore normally distributed itself.

Make sure you are calculating the mean and variance of $\sum_{i=1}^{40} X_i$ correctly; they are not the same as the mean and variance of the $X_i$, which looks like what you calculated above. See the formulas on Wikipedia for two independently distributed normal random variables, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sum_of_normally_distributed_random_variables, and then generalize.

0
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Hint: The sum of normally distributed and independent random variables are normally distributed as well.

If $X_i\sim \mathcal N(\mu, \sigma ^2) $

then $\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\sim \mathcal N(n\cdot \mu, n\cdot \sigma ^2) $

Therefore $P(\sum_{i=1}^{40} X_i\geq 36)=1-P(\sum_{i=1}^{40} X_i <36)$

$=1-\Phi\left(\frac{36-40\cdot 0.941}{\sqrt{40} \cdot 0.313}\right)=1-\Phi(-0.82846)$

where $\Phi(z)$ is the cdf of the standard normal distribution. The value for this function can be looked up in this or other tables.

If you use a calculator with the function $\texttt{normalcdf}(X; \mu; \sigma)$, then you get the result of $P(\sum_{i=1}^{40} X_i\geq 36)$ by typing in $\texttt{normalcdf}(36;40\cdot 0.941; \sqrt{40}\cdot 0.313)$ or

$\texttt{normalcdf}(36; 37.64; 1.9796)$

Then you take the result and subtract it from $1$.