Let $f:X\to Y$ be a submersion equipped with a connection given by a vertical projection $\mathrm V$. Let $\vec v_1,\vec v_2$ be vector fields on $Y$ with unique horizontal lifts $\vec u_1,\vec u_2$.
I have read the vertical component $\mathrm V([\vec u_1,\vec u_2](x))$ of the Lie bracket at a point $x\in X$ depends only on $\vec u_1(x),\vec u_2(x)$, i.e $\vec v_1(fx),\vec v_2(fx)$.
Question. What is the intuition behind this fact and how can I prove it?
S.harp's answer is very instructive. Below is the proof I was looking for.
Let $X\overset{f}{\to} Y$ be a submersion equipped with an Ehresmann connection specified by a vertical projection $K$. Let $\vec u_1,\vec u_2$ be vector fields on $X$.
Proposition. The restriction of the composite $K\circ \mathcal L_{\vec u_1}$ to the $C^\infty _X$-module of horizontal vector fields is $C^\infty _X$ linear. Consequently, its action on $\vec u_2$ (which usually depends on the 1-jet of $\vec u_2$) depends only on the value of $\vec u_2$ (e.g by the equivalence of projective $C^\infty _X$-modules and $C^\infty $ vector bundles over $X$).
Proof. Use the product/Leibniz rule. $$\mathcal L_{\vec u_1}(f\cdot \vec u_2)=\mathcal L _{\vec u_1}f\cdot \vec u_1 + f\cdot \mathcal L_{\vec u_1}\vec u_2 $$
If $\vec u_2$ is horizontal then applying $K$ kills the first summand on the right, giving the desired result.
Corollary. If $\vec u_1,\vec u_2$ are both horizontal then the value $K[\vec u_1,\vec u_2]x$ is determined by $\vec u_1x,\vec u_2x$.
Proof. Apply the proposition twice, using also the fact Lie bracket is given by Lie derivative.