Based on GLS regression I have identified two random variables lets call them A & B
variable A is normal variable with
E(A) = 15
STDEV(A) = 18
variable B is composed as follows
B = X * t
E(X) = 0.15
STDEV(X) = 0.02
Given the above, is it possible to make a forecast of STDEV(A+B) at time (t)?
I have also created time varying model for the standard deviation of B.
Dependent Variable: B
Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) - Normal distribution
Date: 17/06/14 Time: 13:02
Sample: 641 778
Included observations: 138
Convergence achieved after 24 iterations
Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)
GARCH = C(3) + C(4)*GARCH(-1) + C(5)*DAY-639
Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
C -0.332209 1.544698 -0.215064 0.8297
DAY-639 0.156594 0.022257 7.035607 0.0000
Variance Equation
C -2.821977 0.647196 -4.360314 0.0000
GARCH(-1) 0.030162 0.393119 0.076726 0.9388
DAY-639 1.358799 0.544513 2.495440 0.0126
Since $A$ and $B$ are independent we have $$ \text{var}(A+B) = \text{var}(A) + \text{var}(B) = \text{var}(A) + \text{var}(tX) = 18^2 + t^2\text{var}(X) = 18^2 + t^2\cdot 0.02^2, $$ so that $\text{STDEV}(A+B) = \sqrt{18^2 + t^2\cdot 0.02^2}$.