I haven't found an answer to this specific question. Say that I have a 1% chance of my appendix bursting in any given year. To calculate the probability over twenty years, if these were considered individual events, I would compute 1 - ( 0.99) ^ 20.
However, if my appendix bursts in year two, the probability of it bursting in years three through twenty is zero because there's no more appendix. Should I think of this scenario as independent and just calculate as above (again, looking for the probability of appendix burst in any of those twenty years)? Or should I take into account that the event in question can only happen once and therefore calculate differently?
Thanks in advance for your help.