Average probablity to get a specific outcome on a ten sided dice

36 Views Asked by At

A man is playing a game with a ten-sided die, he will roll it every minute and will win if it gives the number $10$. On average, how many minutes would it take him to win the game?

My working -

Probability the man does not win on the first try = $9/10$

On his second try, it is = $9/10*9/10$

On the third, it is = $(9/10)^3$

to infinity

That means avg number of tries the game lasts = $9/10 + (9/10)^2 + (9/10)^3+\dots$ which converges to $9$.

Therefore on average, it should take him $9$ minutes to win. But my intuition said it should be $10$ tries because there are $10$ possibilities and it should take $10$ minutes to get all the possible outcomes. Can anyone explain why my intuition is wrong?

1

There are 1 best solutions below

0
On BEST ANSWER

It may be because of a trivial mistake, because you forgot that the first roll can be rolled instantly.