Can you show all the steps needed for a Bayesian probability progression as new information is received. As an example, initial estimate for Obama to win (popular vote) is 55%. In state-A, Democrats usually get 51.5% of the vote but receive 57% of the vote after 10% of the ballots have been counted. In state-B,Democrats receive 48% 0f the vote after 5% of of the ballots have been counted.
3 or 4 new pieces of data come in from other states (your choice of numbers).
What I am interested in are the calculations one goes through to get the final probability estimate.
I want to display this to 15 - 16 year old high school students.
Thank you for any help that you can give me.