I am having trouble understanding how to set this one up, I don't need the full answer just how to set it up.
Sally is always running late to campus. The probability she is late to campus for when she uses her moped is $3\%$, for her car $10\%$ and then the train is $7\%$.
Question: Say the probability that Sally uses her moped is $0.7$, car $0.2$ , or train $0.1$. What is the probability Sally ends up being late? Please use extended Bayes Theorem.
My mistake, miss typed a number
Let $A_1$ be the event: Sally uses her moped
Let $A_2$ be the event: Sally uses her car
Let $A_3$ be the event: Sally uses the train
Let $B$ be the event: Sally is late
Using total probability formula:
$P(B) = \sum_{i=1}^n P(B|A_i)P(A_i) = P(B|A_1)P(A_1) + P(B|A_2)P(A_2) + P(B|A_3)P(A_3)$