33% of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage (bleeding from a burst brain aneurysm) die before they reach hospital. Of those who survive, 15% have another brain-bleed within 2 weeks. 45% of those who have a second brain-bleed die. Using Bayesian analysis, what is the proportion of people who die from subarachnoid haemorrhage?
MY SOLUTION
I had to draw out the probability tree and calculated the overall percentage of death after subarachnoid haemorrhage being 0.37.
I can't for the life of me work out what the prior and likelihood are in this question.