Bayesian Resume Rating for sports math is explained in PDF https://www.jellyjuke.com/uploads/5/8/0/2/58022979/mathematical_explanation_of_the_bayesian_resume_rating_10-23-18.pdf
The formula used to calculate talent is:
However I am confused with the Pi(x) inside product set. It is stated that it depends on each game, however the probability ecuations found in the pdf only give constants (they contain x but it is eliminated after integration).
If I just calculate the product of these constant it yields unconsistent results.
I found a probability formula that depends on x, but it is the probability that the team have determinated talent, and don't depends on the game but the ligue.
What would be the correct formula Pi(x)?
I'm the maker of this algorithm.
The formula for P(x) is on the first page of the pdf. In that context, using that formula from the first page is μA in the case of a win or μB in the case of a loss. So the formula you're talking about could be re-written as shown in the link below. I hope that helps.
To anyone else reading this, my email is [email protected] if you'd like to contact me directly.
https://i.stack.imgur.com/IbjW7.png