Commuting probability

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http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/~vadim/commute.pdf

Where does the commuting probability formula on page 8 come from ?

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Because we use the formula $x*y=f(x)$, we have that $x$ and $y$ commute if and only if $f(x)=f(y)$, which holds if and only if they are in the same blob. Thus, the problem reduces to asking what the probability that two chosen elements from a partitioned set are in the same partition. This is simple counting.