Sorry for the dumb question, but it seems that I'm missing something pretty straightforward
Abstract
Suppose you are throwing one cube of dice, and you have thrown value "6" ten times in a row, obviously a probability of throwing "6" one, two, n, times more will drop with each following throw. From another perspective the actual values you get with each throw obey uniform distribution, which is independent of how much values of "6" you are already got by throwing dice. So from another perspective the probability of getting "6" in the following throw is equal to probability of getting any other value of the cube.
Problem
I was trying create computer simulation (Montecarlo method) to calculate conditional probability of some event, for example one described previously (when you get "6" ten times in a row), but obviously due to uniform distribution I've got that the resulting probability is roughly equal among all the faces of the cube, independent of how many "6" you've already got,
Question
The point of calculation that I'm trying to achieve is in analysing sub-sequences of values that are produced by process similar to throwing dice. And I think by analysing pretty long sequence it will be possible to calculate the probability of getting specific value at each specific step.
Where am I wrong?
Thank you in advance,
The concept of conditional probability does not come into play when the outcome of some event is not dependent on a previous event.
If you want to understand the concept of conditional probability, consider the problem of summing a certain number of rolls of a single die. If you only get one roll, there are only six possible outcomes, with equal probability. If you get two rolls, the probability of getting a sum of say 12 is dependent on the outcome of the first roll. In this case if the first roll was anything but a 6, you have a zero chance of getting to twelve. If the first roll was a 6, you have a one in six chance to get up to twelve. This is why you have the highest probability of rolling a seven on two dice -- no matter what the first die outcome is, you still have a chance to get a seven.