How would we model the current spread and death rate of the novel corona virus in the UK: Covid19 death, case graph?
Is there a way we could do this or are there too many unknown variables that we don’t know how to account for?
Could we use data from other countries like Italy? Or are there too many dissimilarities, like average age of the population?
Some elements of answer
When you use the word model, the big question is always with which level of approximation.
At least this link presents in a didactic way a basic epidemic model.
And this article, some background on the UK political debate around the way to manage the epidemic.