Every day a trader either makes $50$% with probability $0.6$ or loses $50$% with probability $0.4$.
The average return per day is: $1-\exp (0.6 \ln 1.5+0.4 \ln 0.5)=-3.34 \%$
How is this average calculated?
Every day a trader either makes $50$% with probability $0.6$ or loses $50$% with probability $0.4$.
The average return per day is: $1-\exp (0.6 \ln 1.5+0.4 \ln 0.5)=-3.34 \%$
How is this average calculated?
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I would have calculated the average return like this:
0.5 * 0.6 - 0.5 * 0.4 = 0.3 - 0.2 = 0.1, or 10%.
This means in the long run, the trader makes an average of 10% return each day. Since the probability of makes 50% is higher than that of loses 50%, the average return can't be a negative number.