Exponential Distribution - conditional Probability

274 Views Asked by At

I have the following question as practice for an upcoming test:

A website suggests that men think about sex an average of $15$ times per day.

Let $x$= the number of hours that pass between successive thoughts of sex, = $1.6$

At least $1.6$ hours have passed since the last thought of sex. What is the probability that in total, at least $3.2$ hours will pass until the next thought of sex?

I thought since Exponential Distributions are memoryless, that this would just be $P(x \ge 3.2)$, but apparently this is wrong.

1

There are 1 best solutions below

2
On BEST ANSWER

You're right that the exponential distribution is memoryless. That is,

$$P(X\geq 3.2 \mid X \geq 1.6)=P(X\geq1.6)$$

Perhaps the wording of the question threw you off.

It's looking for the probability that you have to wait at least $3.2$ hours in total so $1.6$ more hours.

which of course comes out to be

$$\begin{align*} P(X\geq1.6) &=1-P(X\lt1.6)\\\\ &=1-\int_0^{1.6} \frac{1}{1.6}e^{-\frac{x}{1.6}}dx\\\\ &\approx 0.36788 \end{align*}$$