Let $X=(X_t)_{t\in \mathbb N}$ be a infinite time series. We know that the forecasting or prediction of $X_{T+h}$ if we observe $X_1,...,X_T$ is $$P_{X_1,..,X_T}(X_{T+h})= E[X_{T+h} | X_1,..., X_T ]$$ Now, suppose $X^j=(X_t^j)_{t\in \mathbb N}$, $j=1,...,n$ iid coppies of $X$. Define: $$Y_t = X_t^1 + ...+ X_t^n$$ Suppose that we only observe $Y_1,.., Y_T$. We know that: $$P_{Y_1,..,Y_T}(Y_{T+h})=E[Y_{T+h}|Y_1,...,Y_T]=\sum_{j=1}^n E[X^j_{T+h}| Y_1,...,T_T ]$$ But I want to know if there is any formula for $P_{Y_1,..,Y_T}(Y_{T+h})$ involving $P_{X_1,..,X_T}(X_{T+h})$. I think I can do this: $$P_{Y_1,..,Y_T}(Y_{T+h})=\sum_{j=1}^n E[X^j_{T+h}| Y_1,...,T_T ]=nE[X_{T+h}| Y_1,...,T_T ]= n P_{Y_1,..,Y_T}(X_{T+h})$$ But I don't know if this equal to $nP_{X_1,..,X_T}(X_{T+h})$.
2026-04-05 14:46:19.1775400379
Find a formula for forecasting of the sum of $n$ iid processes
30 Views Asked by Bumbble Comm https://math.techqa.club/user/bumbble-comm/detail AtRelated Questions in PROBABILITY
- How to prove $\lim_{n \rightarrow\infty} e^{-n}\sum_{k=0}^{n}\frac{n^k}{k!} = \frac{1}{2}$?
- Is this a commonly known paradox?
- What's $P(A_1\cap A_2\cap A_3\cap A_4) $?
- Prove or disprove the following inequality
- Another application of the Central Limit Theorem
- Given is $2$ dimensional random variable $(X,Y)$ with table. Determine the correlation between $X$ and $Y$
- A random point $(a,b)$ is uniformly distributed in a unit square $K=[(u,v):0<u<1,0<v<1]$
- proving Kochen-Stone lemma...
- Solution Check. (Probability)
- Interpreting stationary distribution $P_{\infty}(X,V)$ of a random process
Related Questions in PROBABILITY-THEORY
- Is this a commonly known paradox?
- What's $P(A_1\cap A_2\cap A_3\cap A_4) $?
- Another application of the Central Limit Theorem
- proving Kochen-Stone lemma...
- Is there a contradiction in coin toss of expected / actual results?
- Sample each point with flipping coin, what is the average?
- Random variables coincide
- Reference request for a lemma on the expected value of Hermitian polynomials of Gaussian random variables.
- Determine the marginal distributions of $(T_1, T_2)$
- Convergence in distribution of a discretized random variable and generated sigma-algebras
Related Questions in STOCHASTIC-PROCESSES
- Interpreting stationary distribution $P_{\infty}(X,V)$ of a random process
- Probability being in the same state
- Random variables coincide
- Reference request for a lemma on the expected value of Hermitian polynomials of Gaussian random variables.
- Why does there exists a random variable $x^n(t,\omega')$ such that $x_{k_r}^n$ converges to it
- Compute the covariance of $W_t$ and $B_t=\int_0^t\mathrm{sgn}(W)dW$, for a Brownian motion $W$
- Why has $\sup_{s \in (0,t)} B_s$ the same distribution as $\sup_{s \in (0,t)} B_s-B_t$ for a Brownian motion $(B_t)_{t \geq 0}$?
- What is the name of the operation where a sequence of RV's form the parameters for the subsequent one?
- Markov property vs. transition function
- Variance of the integral of a stochastic process multiplied by a weighting function
Related Questions in SELF-LEARNING
- Best book to study Lie group theory
- How do you prevent being lead astray when you're working on a problem that takes months/years?
- how to solve Lazy janitor problem
- How deep do you have to go before you can contribute to the research frontier
- Use the binomial theorem to prove that for $n$ a positive integer the following holds
- Am I right or wrong in this absolute value?
- good introduction to algebra over a field?
- What are the mathematical topics most essential for an applied mathematician?
- Are there any analysis textbooks like Charles Pinter's A book of abstract algebra?
- How to use the AOPS books?
Related Questions in CONDITIONAL-EXPECTATION
- Expectation involving bivariate standard normal distribution
- Show that $\mathbb{E}[Xg(Y)|Y] = g(Y) \mathbb{E}[X|Y]$
- How to prove that $E_P(\frac{dQ}{dP}|\mathcal{G})$ is not equal to $0$
- Inconsistent calculation for conditional expectation
- Obtaining expression for a conditional expectation
- $E\left(\xi\text{|}\xi\eta\right)$ with $\xi$ and $\eta$ iid random variables on $\left(\Omega, \mathscr{F}, P\right)$
- Martingale conditional expectation
- What is $\mathbb{E}[X\wedge Y|X]$, where $X,Y$ are independent and $\mathrm{Exp}(\lambda)$- distributed?
- $E[X|X>c]$ = $\frac{\phi(c)}{1-\Phi(c)}$ , given X is $N(0,1)$ , how to derive this?
- Simple example dependent variables but under some conditions independent
Trending Questions
- Induction on the number of equations
- How to convince a math teacher of this simple and obvious fact?
- Find $E[XY|Y+Z=1 ]$
- Refuting the Anti-Cantor Cranks
- What are imaginary numbers?
- Determine the adjoint of $\tilde Q(x)$ for $\tilde Q(x)u:=(Qu)(x)$ where $Q:U→L^2(Ω,ℝ^d$ is a Hilbert-Schmidt operator and $U$ is a Hilbert space
- Why does this innovative method of subtraction from a third grader always work?
- How do we know that the number $1$ is not equal to the number $-1$?
- What are the Implications of having VΩ as a model for a theory?
- Defining a Galois Field based on primitive element versus polynomial?
- Can't find the relationship between two columns of numbers. Please Help
- Is computer science a branch of mathematics?
- Is there a bijection of $\mathbb{R}^n$ with itself such that the forward map is connected but the inverse is not?
- Identification of a quadrilateral as a trapezoid, rectangle, or square
- Generator of inertia group in function field extension
Popular # Hahtags
second-order-logic
numerical-methods
puzzle
logic
probability
number-theory
winding-number
real-analysis
integration
calculus
complex-analysis
sequences-and-series
proof-writing
set-theory
functions
homotopy-theory
elementary-number-theory
ordinary-differential-equations
circles
derivatives
game-theory
definite-integrals
elementary-set-theory
limits
multivariable-calculus
geometry
algebraic-number-theory
proof-verification
partial-derivative
algebra-precalculus
Popular Questions
- What is the integral of 1/x?
- How many squares actually ARE in this picture? Is this a trick question with no right answer?
- Is a matrix multiplied with its transpose something special?
- What is the difference between independent and mutually exclusive events?
- Visually stunning math concepts which are easy to explain
- taylor series of $\ln(1+x)$?
- How to tell if a set of vectors spans a space?
- Calculus question taking derivative to find horizontal tangent line
- How to determine if a function is one-to-one?
- Determine if vectors are linearly independent
- What does it mean to have a determinant equal to zero?
- Is this Batman equation for real?
- How to find perpendicular vector to another vector?
- How to find mean and median from histogram
- How many sides does a circle have?