Find the probability of selling a home

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I am trying to calculate the probability that a home will sell in varying times (30, 60, 90, 120 days etc.) based on current market statistics. I have the number of homes matching (comparable homes) to the house that is going to be sold. There are (21 homes sold in one year or 365 days). Furthermore their are currently(12 active homes) on the market comparable to the home that is going to be sold. I want to calculate the probability of selling a home in incremental times (30, 60, 90, 120 days etc.) for example the home I am selling has a 10.5% chance it would sell in the next 30 days. I am needing the formula and understanding of how to plug the numbers in to create the probability of sale. I have been attempting to work with standard deviation and Z tables to create the formula to display the probability of sale and display it in percentage.

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What would be much more useful is the time on market for the homes in the past year. If all the homes sell in the same amount of time the inventory suggests that amount of time is $\frac {12}{21}=\frac 47$ year. You could have $12$ homes that will never sell and $21$ homes that sold in one day each last year. Quoting a $10.5\%$ chance is foolish-you will never have enough data to support that level of precision. Using standard deviation and Z scores implies that you are assuming the time on market is a normal distribution. That is probably a terrible assumption-the distribution is likely much flatter than that.