It was asked in one of my facebook group pages about what everyone would think would be the total number of times event X will happen in the season.
I decided I wanted to nerd it out and try to figure out what X would be given the previous season's statistics and the probability it would happen this year through a C# program. I have applied the Binomial Distribution to get the probabilities needed but this is where I am stuck.
How do I use the probability to get a yes/no that the event will happen in that particular at-bat?
IE: Batter A has a 22% chance of hitting a double per at-bat.
At-bat #1: double
At-bat #2: no double
At-bat #3: no double
So we can say with certainty that in this particular game, batter A hit at least 1 double and we can add that 1 double to a running total for the # of occurrences it may be simulated to happen.
How would I do the above example mathematically?
as a side note: This is something for fun as I am a huge baseball enthusiast and in no way attached to any attempt at sports betting.
TIA!